Synthetic Prediction Markets with Algorithm Traders for Determining Experimental Reproducibility

Logic, Games, and Graphs Seminar

Meeting Details

For more information about this meeting, contact Stephanie Geyer, Andrew Belmonte, Jan Reimann, Linda Westrick, Kristin Berrigan, Christopher Griffin.

Speaker: Sarah Rajtmajer, Penn State

Abstract: We will outline a nascent research agenda to develop artificial prediction markets to evaluate the reproducibility of published research claims in the social and behavioral science literatures. Markets will be populated by artificial agents, trained and updated within human-expert prediction markets, but deployable offline. Artificial agents will represent atomic properties of relevant signals, including full text of scientific papers, metadata for specific papers, and metadata about the community and the field. Agents (“trader bots”) will learn trading patterns from subject matter experts engaged in prediction markets, but unlike their human counterparts, will have comprehensive, unbiased view on the existing literature and metadata. The project is funded through DARPA’s Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) program, and represents a joint effort with collaborators at Penn State ARL, Smeal College of Business, Texas A&M, Old Dominion University, and Microsoft Research.

Room Reservation Information

Room Number: 114 McAllister

Date: 10/23/2019

Time: 2:30pm - 3:30pm